Today’s Kentucky Derby Forecast, Track Conditions and Odds

2020 Kentucky Derby Forecast

This year, for the Covid-19 Delayed Kentucky Derby, the weather in Louisville is expected to be warm and beautiful with highs in the lower 80s, the nice day coming after several days of rain in the area. But a fast track lately for Kentucky Derby Day has been almost a rarity.

Kentucky Derby Track Conditions

Churchill Downs

Horse at Churchill Downs – Courtesy of Churchill Downs/Coady Photography.

A year ago, Maximum Security and Country House won over a track labeled “sloppy”, as did Triple Crown winner Justify in 2008. Other runners to have won on a main track labeled sloppy are Orb (2013), Super Saver (2010), Mine That Bird (2009), Smarty Jones (2004), Go For Gin (2004), Citation (1948) and Flying Ebony in 1925.

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In 2017, Always Dreaming won over a track labeled “wet fast.”

Unbridled in 1990 was the last Kentucky Derby winner to capture the race over a “good” main track and joined Dust Commander (1970), Carry Back (1961), Venetian Way (1960), Pensive (1944), Omaha (1935), Brokers Tip (1933), Gallant Fox (1930), Plaudit (1898), Joe Cotton (1885) and Buchanan (1884).

Dual classic winner Sunday Silence won the first jewel of the Triple Crown over a “muddy” track, as did Tim Tam (1958), Hoop Jr. (1945), Clyde Van Dusen (1929), Exterminator (1918), Worth (1912) and Riley (1890).

Churchill Downs Track Condition

The track condition label “slow” isn’t used anymore and to prove it, the last time a horse won the Derby over a “slow” surface was in 1947 when Jet Pilot won. Other winners on a “slow” track were Assault (1946), Whiskery (1927), Paul Jones (1920) and Wintergreen (1909).

“Heavy” is also not an often-used track condition, but in 1928 Reigh Count won on a “heavy” main track, as did Stone Street (1908), Pink Star (1907), Agile (1905), Typhoon II (1897), Azra (1892) and Leonatus (1883). One nobody still alive to remembers is a “dusty” track condition and three horses a very long time ago won on a “dusty” track – Ben Brush (1896), Fonso (1880), Day Star (1878).

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2020 Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Position
PP Horse Odds Trainer Jockey
1 Finnick the Fierce SCR Rey Hernandez Martin Garcia
2 Max Player 30-1 Steven M. Asmussen Ricardo Santana, Jr.
3 Enforceable 30-1 Mark Casse Adam Beschizza
4 Storm the Court 50-1 Peter Eurton Julien Leparoux
5 Major Fed 50-1 Greg Foley James Graham
6 King Guillermo SCR Juan Carlos Avila Samy Camacho
7 Money Moves 30-1 Todd Pletcher Javier Castellano
8 South Bend 50-1 Tyler Gaffalione Bill Mott
9 Mr. Big News 50-1 Bret Calhoun Gabriel Saez
10 Thousand Words 15-1 Bob Baffert Florent Geroux
11 Necker Island 50-1 Chris Hartman Miguel Mena
12 Sole Volante 30-1 Patrick Biancone Luca Panici
13 Attachment Rate 50-1 Dale Romans Joe Talamo
14 Winning Impression 50-1 Dallas Stewart Joe Rocco, Jr.
15 NY Traffic 20-1 Saffie Joseph, Jr. Paco Lopez
16 Honor A. P. 5-1 John A. Shirreffs Mike Smith
17 Tiz the Law 3-5 Barclay Tagg Manny Franco
18 Authentic 8-1 Bob Baffert John Velazquez

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