2020 Kentucky Derby Forecast
This year, for the Covid-19 Delayed Kentucky Derby, the weather in Louisville is expected to be warm and beautiful with highs in the lower 80s, the nice day coming after several days of rain in the area. But a fast track lately for Kentucky Derby Day has been almost a rarity.
Kentucky Derby Track Conditions
A year ago, Maximum Security and Country House won over a track labeled “sloppy”, as did Triple Crown winner Justify in 2008. Other runners to have won on a main track labeled sloppy are Orb (2013), Super Saver (2010), Mine That Bird (2009), Smarty Jones (2004), Go For Gin (2004), Citation (1948) and Flying Ebony in 1925.
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In 2017, Always Dreaming won over a track labeled “wet fast.”
Unbridled in 1990 was the last Kentucky Derby winner to capture the race over a “good” main track and joined Dust Commander (1970), Carry Back (1961), Venetian Way (1960), Pensive (1944), Omaha (1935), Brokers Tip (1933), Gallant Fox (1930), Plaudit (1898), Joe Cotton (1885) and Buchanan (1884).
Dual classic winner Sunday Silence won the first jewel of the Triple Crown over a “muddy” track, as did Tim Tam (1958), Hoop Jr. (1945), Clyde Van Dusen (1929), Exterminator (1918), Worth (1912) and Riley (1890).
Churchill Downs Track Condition
The track condition label “slow” isn’t used anymore and to prove it, the last time a horse won the Derby over a “slow” surface was in 1947 when Jet Pilot won. Other winners on a “slow” track were Assault (1946), Whiskery (1927), Paul Jones (1920) and Wintergreen (1909).
“Heavy” is also not an often-used track condition, but in 1928 Reigh Count won on a “heavy” main track, as did Stone Street (1908), Pink Star (1907), Agile (1905), Typhoon II (1897), Azra (1892) and Leonatus (1883). One nobody still alive to remembers is a “dusty” track condition and three horses a very long time ago won on a “dusty” track – Ben Brush (1896), Fonso (1880), Day Star (1878).
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1 | Finnick the Fierce | SCR | Rey Hernandez | Martin Garcia |
2 | Max Player | 30-1 | Steven M. Asmussen | Ricardo Santana, Jr. |
3 | Enforceable | 30-1 | Mark Casse | Adam Beschizza |
4 | Storm the Court | 50-1 | Peter Eurton | Julien Leparoux |
5 | Major Fed | 50-1 | Greg Foley | James Graham |
6 | King Guillermo | SCR | Juan Carlos Avila | Samy Camacho |
7 | Money Moves | 30-1 | Todd Pletcher | Javier Castellano |
8 | South Bend | 50-1 | Tyler Gaffalione | Bill Mott |
9 | Mr. Big News | 50-1 | Bret Calhoun | Gabriel Saez |
10 | Thousand Words | 15-1 | Bob Baffert | Florent Geroux |
11 | Necker Island | 50-1 | Chris Hartman | Miguel Mena |
12 | Sole Volante | 30-1 | Patrick Biancone | Luca Panici |
13 | Attachment Rate | 50-1 | Dale Romans | Joe Talamo |
14 | Winning Impression | 50-1 | Dallas Stewart | Joe Rocco, Jr. |
15 | NY Traffic | 20-1 | Saffie Joseph, Jr. | Paco Lopez |
16 | Honor A. P. | 5-1 | John A. Shirreffs | Mike Smith |
17 | Tiz the Law | 3-5 | Barclay Tagg | Manny Franco |
18 | Authentic | 8-1 | Bob Baffert | John Velazquez |